Winter Storm Fern Surf Forecast: East Coast Fires January 25-27

Right now there's a monster storm stretching from Texas to Maine. Over 900,000 people are without power. NYC is getting buried in snow. Flights are canceled everywhere.

And somewhere on the East Coast, someone is waxing their board.

That's the thing about nor'easters — they suck for almost everything except surfing. Here's what's happening and where to look.

What's Going On

Winter Storm Fern (that's what the Weather Channel is calling it) is a massive low-pressure system that's been tracking northeast since Thursday. It's the kind of storm that makes meteorologists use words like "historic" and "once in a decade."

The numbers are wild:

• 2,000+ miles of winter weather alerts
• 230+ million people affected
• 8-12 inches of snow forecast for NYC
• Over 9,000 flights canceled today alone

For surfers, the important part is this: a deep low-pressure system moving up the coast generates strong winds that push massive amounts of water. That water becomes swell. That swell becomes waves.

The Surf Forecast

Here's the breakdown by region:

New Jersey & New York

Sunday (Today): Building ESE swell throughout the day. The models are showing 4-6ft by late afternoon at exposed spots. Problem is, the wind is still howling onshore from the east — 15-25mph. It's surfable but messy.

Monday: This is the day. As the storm moves offshore overnight, winds shift to the northwest — offshore for most spots. Expect 5-8ft with much cleaner conditions. Long Beach Island, Manasquan, and Rockaway should all be firing.

Tuesday: Swell starts to fade but still solid. 3-5ft with continued NW winds. Great day to avoid the Monday crowds.

Check our NJ spots and NY spots for real-time conditions.

Mid-Atlantic (Delaware, Maryland, Virginia)

Sunday: Already seeing some size build. 3-5ft at spots like Ocean City MD and Virginia Beach. Onshore wind making it choppy.

Monday: Prime conditions. 4-7ft with offshore winds. The Outer Banks could see the biggest and cleanest surf — Cape Hatteras and Jennette's Pier are worth the drive if you're within range.

Tuesday: Fading but still fun. 3-4ft, clean winds.

New England (Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Maine)

Sunday-Monday: The storm tracks closest to New England, which means stronger winds but also bigger swell. Exposed spots could see 6-10ft by Monday morning. The challenge: getting to the beach through the snow, and the brutal cold (wind chills below zero in some areas).

Monday afternoon-Tuesday: This is your window. As conditions settle, spots like Narragansett and Newport should have solid waves with manageable winds.

Southeast (North Carolina, South Carolina)

Sunday: The southern edge of the swell window. 2-4ft building at NC spots.

Monday: After the storm passes, a secondary fetch of northerly wind could push some additional swell south. Expect 3-5ft at exposed breaks like Wrightsville Beach.

Florida

Late Monday-Tuesday: Here's the sleeper call. As this swell radiates out from the storm, it'll send energy all the way down to Florida and into the Caribbean. Not huge, but spots like Jacksonville Beach and Cocoa Beach could see 2-4ft of clean NE swell by Tuesday.

Why Monday Is the Day

The magic of nor'easters is the wind shift. Today (Sunday) winds are blowing onshore from the east — that's why conditions are messy even though there's swell in the water.

Tomorrow, as the storm moves past and out to sea, winds flip to offshore from the northwest. Same swell, completely different conditions. That's when you go.

Model Agreement

We're pulling from three models (WaveWatch III, ECMWF, and Open-Meteo) and right now they're mostly agreeing — which means higher confidence in these forecasts.

The main uncertainty is timing. A few hours difference in when the winds shift could mean the difference between an epic session and getting skunked. Check your spot's forecast Monday morning before committing to the drive.

Realistic Expectations

A few things to consider:

Getting to the beach: If you're in the snow zone (NYC north), roads might be rough Sunday night and early Monday. Check conditions before you leave.

Cold: We're talking air temps in the 20s and water in the low 40s. Full winter wetsuit, boots, gloves, hood. This is not optional.

Crowds: Everyone who surfs the East Coast knows what's coming. Monday will be crowded at the usual spots. If you can surf Sunday afternoon despite the wind, or wait until Tuesday, you'll have better luck.

Safety: Big winter swells are no joke. If you're not comfortable in overhead surf with strong currents, sit this one out. There will be more swells.

Track It Live

We update forecasts every 6 hours from multiple models. Check your spot:

• New Jersey: Manasquan | LBI | Asbury Park
• New York: Rockaway | Long Beach | Montauk
• North Carolina: Cape Hatteras | Jennette's Pier
• Florida: Jacksonville | Cocoa Beach

Or browse all 76 East Coast spots.

Stay warm out there.